S&P Says Casino Growth Will Not Close Asia’s Credit Gap
S&P expects regional gaming revenue to grow by 3%-5% a year over the next two to three years. The agency does not expect that growth alone to improve issuer credit profiles.
In its July 28 report, regulatory stability emerges as a key factor in the analysis. Governments may change gambling rules quickly when social concerns create political pressure. Higher compliance costs or changes to taxation, licensing, and operating requirements can then reduce the predictability of casino cash flow.
Public opinion further contributes to the difficulty. In a 2025 Pew Research Center survey, 89% of adults in Indonesia and 83% of adults in India felt that gambling was morally wrong, while only 29% of adults in the US felt the same way.
Macau and Singapore Set the Benchmark
Macau ranked first among the eight jurisdictions assessed by S&P, followed by Singapore. The two markets combine the demand for large-scale casinos with regulation and restrictions on online gambling.
Macau scored well in terms of market size, regulatory oversight, and long concession periods. Though there is an effective 40% tax on gross gaming revenue, which hinders profits, the framework of concessions allows for better forecasting of future earnings.
Singapore also benefits from the predictability created by its two-casino setup. There are different tax rates for different player segments and different levels of revenue. However, the limited number of operators and mature regulatory system reduce uncertainty around supply.
Japan ranked third despite having no operating integrated resort. MGM Osaka is scheduled to open in late 2030. S&P gave the market high scores for its size, regulatory oversight, and limited number of licenses.
Online Competition Weakens Lower-Ranked Markets
The Philippines and New Zealand ranked seventh and eighth, respectively. S&P grouped them with fifth-ranked Australia as headwind markets. It said the relatively lenient approach to online gambling in the Philippines and New Zealand could reduce the returns and feasibility of large physical casino projects.
This threat is already visible in the Philippines. Online gaming revenue expanded twentyfold between 2022 and 2025, according to S&P. Restrictions on e-wallet links introduced in August 2025 then showed how quickly policy could interrupt that growth.
Malaysia came in at number four, while Cambodia was sixth. Malaysia’s casino monopoly and NagaCorp’s protected position around Phnom Penh limit local competition. However, S&P said both markets remain less attractive to international visitors, restricting their scale and operator numbers.
Growth Does Not Remove the Risk
Monopoly rights and long concessions give lenders some visibility. They do not remove the main risk. Revenue can move online, while governments may change the rules with little warning.
That leaves Macau and Singapore in a stronger position. Their regulations are strict, but operators know the framework. Elsewhere, gaming revenue could continue to grow without a similar impact on credit quality.