A Month Into the NFL Season: More Bets, Less Money – and Why Gen Z Is Now the Key US Bettor

During the first four weeks of the NFL season in New York, handle (amount wagered) rose 10.6% compared to a year ago, while bookmakers’ revenue fell by 21.3%. The margin dropped from 9.0% to 6.4% (all sports, data from the state regulator). At the same time, in the summer of 2026, Gen Z surpassed Millennials for the first time in U.S. online betting, at least among Bank of America customers. We take a closer look at what the new leading bettor in the U.S. wants and why the growing audience hasn’t yet translated into revenue for legal operators.

Key Takeaways

• In July 2026, Gen Z accounted for 48% of Bank of America’s customers who engaged in online betting, while Millennials accounted for 40%. Until June, Millennials had been in the lead. This refers to the share of customers, not the amount of money;
• The younger audience has not yet driven growth in the legal market. The AGA expects $29.5 billion in wagers for the 2026 NFL season, which is +0.3% compared to last season. The association attributes this to prediction markets;
• What Gen Z wants is evident from their behavior: live betting, a user-friendly app, tips from social media, and betting as an investment. The latter is a concern not only for bookmakers but also for responsible gambling organizations.

What the Data Actually Revealed

The statement “Gen Z is the largest cohort” is taken from a Bank of America Institute report dated September 1, 2026. The bank analyzed customer payments, including ACH transfers, debit cards, and credit cards, made to online bookmakers, prediction markets, and horse racing betting sites. Social casinos were not included in the sample.

In July, about 5% of the bank’s customers engaged in online betting. Their number had grown by 40% since the beginning of the year. There were more than three times as many new users in June and July as there were in January. The bank attributes this peak to promotions for prediction markets and the FIFA World Cup.

The generational breakdown is shown in the table. In banking terms, Gen Z refers to those born after 1995, that is, legal players aged 21–30 (and 18–20-year-olds in prediction markets).

Table 1. Source: Bank of America Institute, «Online betting platforms: What’s the money line?», September 1, 2026. Data on a single bank’s customers; percentage of customers, not the betting volume.

Other sources confirm this trend. According to a Pew Research Center survey (July–August 2025), 22% of American adults and 31% of people under 30 placed sports bets in the past year. A Harris Poll survey for the NCPG (February 2026) found that 33% of those aged 21–44 bet on sports, compared to 11% of those over 55.

NFL Season: The Audience Is Growing, Legal Handle Isn’t

On September 4, the AGA estimated that legal sportsbooks would take in $29.5 billion in wagers for the 2026 NFL season. Last season totaled $29.4 billion. This represents +0.3% – the first season almost without growth since legalization in 2018. AGA President Bill Miller said that with the “widespread launch of prediction markets, growth in legal handle has stalled.”

H2 Gambling Capital is even more cautious in its September 9 forecast: $31.4 billion in handle for August–February, which is −0.8% compared to the 2025–26 season. The gross win is $3.5 billion, −2%. According to H2’s estimates, prediction markets have already taken about $2 billion in handle away from licensed bookmakers.

The October data from New York paints a more complex picture. Handle is rising, while revenue is falling.

Table 2. Source: New York State Gaming Commission, Weekly Mobile Betting Report (October 7, 2026 edition); 15M calculation. 2025: weeks ending September 7, 14, 21, and 28; 2026: weeks ending September 13, 20, 27, and October 4. All sports, not just the NFL.

Active players bet more, but the market as a whole isn’t growing. For operators, the conclusion is simple: the battle isn’t over attracting new 21-year-olds, but over where they spend their gaming day.

Demand #1: Live bets

In August 2026, Optimove surveyed 926 American adults who had bet on the NFL last season. 84% of them had placed at least one live bet. However, only 34% say in advance they prefer live betting, while 41% place bets before the match. Optimove CEO Pini Yakuel put it this way: “The intentions gathered in August describe the starting point, not the season.”

Most of the money is also in live betting. According to Optimove data for 2024, 52% of bets in the regulated U.S. market were placed during the game. In-play bettors wagered an average of $1,583.90 per month, compared to $846.20 for those who bet before the game. At DraftKings, in-play betting accounted for more than half of the handle for the first time in the first quarter of 2025.

An important caveat must be made: this data does not include a breakdown by age. The link between live betting and Gen Z is a hypothesis supported (but not proven) by the generational shift in the bank’s data. The next step is microbetting, which is betting on individual game plays. It’s already in court: in the lawsuit Sage and Thompson v. the NFL, DraftKings, FanDuel, and Genius Sports, the plaintiffs allege that Genius earned $126.1 million in commissions from microbetting in 2025, representing about 19% of its revenue. This is the plaintiffs’ position, not a fact.

Demand #2: An app, not a bonus

The same Optimove survey shows what players value most. They choose a bookmaker based on the mobile app’s ease of use (59%) and fast payouts (43%). Promotions are important to only 31%. They leave because of an inconvenient app (47%) and because of messages that are too frequent or irrelevant (36%). Their favorite communication channel is push notifications (53%). 64% use two or more bookmakers.

Bettors don’t get their information from sportsbooks. 41% cite social media as a source for their bets, while 26% rely on AI tools. 55% paid for advice and predictions. Among Gen Z, this shift is even more pronounced: according to a Betterment survey, social media became the primary source of financial news for 60% of Gen Zers in 2026, compared to 45% in 2024.

Demand #3: Betting as an Investment

This is where Gen Z stands out. In a Bank of America survey (March 2026, 2,351 respondents), 20% cited sports betting as a form of investment, and Gen Z respondents were twice as likely to do so as others. Contracts on prediction markets are considered investments even more frequently across all generations.

Betterment (April 2026, 1,000 retail investors, online panel) found that 26% of Zoomers view betting as part of their long-term financial strategy. Among Millennials, the figure was 14%; among Gen X, 6%; and among Baby Boomers, only 1%. 52% of young investors shifted money set aside for investments into betting over the course of the year.

Prediction markets are built around this demand. According to AGA, approximately 80% of the business of the largest platforms consists of sports contracts. People aged 18–20, who are not allowed to bet in 35 out of 40 legal jurisdictions, had traded $5.1 billion worth of prediction market bets by September 1 (AGA estimate). During the first NFL weekend, September 12–13, Kalshi betting volume totaled $4.86 billion, including college football, of which $2.95 billion came from parlay bets (data from InGame).

Major operators responded with their own products. FanDuel Predicts launched on December 22, 2025, on the CME Group exchange in five states where sports betting is not legal; CME also partners with DraftKings. AGA president Bill Miller calls such platforms “dangerously misleading to consumers” because they market betting as an investment.

The Other Side

Bank of America’s data does not paint a picture of growth. Withdrawals from these platforms averaged less than three-quarters of deposits: for every dollar, customers received less than 75 cents back. Among Gen Z, this figure is the best among all generations, but it is still below the break-even point. The median account balance for households with online betting in 2026 is 59% of that of households without it.

Public opinion is changing most rapidly among the most active demographic. According to Pew, 47% of men under 30 view legal gambling as harmful to society – up from 22% in 2022. According to a Harris Poll survey for the NCPG, 65% of American adults had gambled for money by the age of 21. NCPG Executive Director Heather Maurer said, “Young people are at significantly greater risk of developing problem gambling.”

A NORC qualitative study for the Massachusetts Gaming Commission (62 participants aged 18–25, published in August 2026) revealed a typical pattern. Most bets are less than $10. Young gamblers acknowledge the risks but do not see them as applying to themselves.

What does that mean?

To operators: Gen Z is an audience for live betting and the mobile app, not for welcome bonuses. Invest in the speed of your live betting offerings, push notifications, and payouts; promotions are the third most important factor.

The neighboring bookmakers are not the main competition for 21-27 year olds. Instead, it is prediction markets with their so-called “trading.” The best response to the competition is through product differentiation (e.g., one-tap parlays, social features, content for live streams) rather than through “investment” language. That said, regulators and courts are focused on such language, and microbetting is the main growth driver and largest legal concern for the period. 

To affiliates: 41% of players get their info through social media, 26% get it through AI tools, and 55% pay for betting tips. These are the main channels for the 21– 27-year-old target audience, i.e., short videos, communities, and tipster content. Advertisements about making easy money and investments are a surefire way to attract regulatory scrutiny; the effective approach is to focus on live events, statistics, and budget-management tools (according to Optimove, 81% of players set a betting budget for themselves).

To data and live content providers: half of all bets are placed in real time, and the demand for real-time data is increasing. That said, the recent microbetting lawsuit shows that regulatory risk is now focused on the feed providers as well. 

Methodology

We fact-checked three claims from the 15M news reports for September 5–8, 2026, using primary sources: the Gen Z share (Bank of America Institute), 84% of live bets (Optimove), and the $29.5 billion forecast (AGA). All three were confirmed, but with caveats: 48% refers to the share of customers at a single bank, not the total betting volume; 84% is a survey response without an age breakdown; and the AGA figures are estimates. The New York data was recalculated by 15M from the regulator’s weekly reports and includes all sports. The Betterment and Optimove surveys are based on online panels, not probability samples.

Sources

1. Bank of America Institute, “Online betting platforms: What’s the money line?” (September 1, 2026) – generational shares, user growth, return rates, account balances, and survey findings on investing. https://institute.bankofamerica.com/content/dam/economic-insights/online-betting-platforms.pdf
2. Pew Research Center, “Americans increasingly see legal sports betting as a bad thing for society and sports” (October 2, 2025) – 22%, 31%, 17% vs. 7%, and 47% vs. 22%. https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2025/10/02/americans-increasingly-see-legal-sports-betting-as-a-bad-thing-for-society-and-sports/
3. Covers, “AGA Expects 1st NFL Season With Flat Growth Since Sports Betting Legalization” (September 4, 2026) – $29.5 billion vs. $29.4 billion, +0.3%, approximately 80%, $5.1 billion, and quotes from Bill Miller. https://www.covers.com/industry/aga-estimates-first-nfl-season-with-flat-growth-since-sports-betting-legalization-sept-4-2026
4. CDC Gaming Reports, “AGA warns that prediction market effect means flat betting handle for NFL season” (September 8, 2026). https://cdcgaming.com/brief/aga-warns-that-prediction-market-effect-means-flat-betting-handle-for-nfl-season/
5. H2 Gambling Capital, “NFL betting handle set to fall for first time” (September 9, 2026) – $31.4 billion, −0.8%, $3.5 billion, and $2.0 billion. https://h2gc.com/news/general/nfl-betting-handle-set-to-fall-for-first-time
6. New York State Gaming Commission, Statewide Mobile Sports Wagering Weekly Report (version dated October 7, 2026). https://gaming.ny.gov/statewide-sports-wagering-weekly-report-pdf
7. Optimove, “NFL Betting Intentions 2026/27 Report” (September 2026) – 84%, 41% vs. 34%, reasons for choosing or leaving a sportsbook, marketing channels, and information sources. https://www.optimove.com/resources/reports/nfl-betting-intentions-2026-27-report
8. Casino.org, “Optimove Survey: 84% of NFL Bettors Placed Live Wagers Last Season” (September 7, 2026) – survey methodology and a quote from Pini Yakuel. https://www.casino.org/news/optimove-survey-nfl-bettors-live-wagers-totals/
9. Optimove, “Live Betting Insights” (January 2025) – 52% of bets placed live in the U.S., $1,583.90 vs. $846.20. https://www.optimove.com/blog/live-betting-insights
10. Covers, “Live Betting Powers DraftKings’ Hot Start to 2025” (May 9, 2025) – live betting accounted for more than 50% of DraftKings’ betting handle in Q1 2025. https://www.covers.com/industry/live-betting-development-powers-draftkings-hot-start-to-2025
11. CasinoBeats, “Live microbetting’s rise represents real growth for sportsbooks, increased health concerns for users” (July 24, 2026) – Sage and Thompson lawsuit, $126.1 million and approximately 19% (figures alleged by the plaintiffs). https://casinobeats.com/2026/07/24/live-microbettings-rise-represents-real-growth-for-sportsbooks-increased-health-concerns-for-users/
12. CDC Gaming Reports (citing InGame), “Kalshi posts record U.S. football weekend with $4.9B volume” (September 15, 2026). https://cdcgaming.com/brief/kalshi-posts-record-u-s-football-weekend-with-4-9b-volume/
13. Front Office Sports, “FanDuel joins prediction market fray as new app goes live” (December 22, 2025). https://frontofficesports.com/article/fanduel-joins-prediction-market-fray-as-new-app-goes-live/
14. InvestmentNews, “Sports betting is pulling Gen Z dollars away from investing, Betterment finds” (August 13, 2026) – 26%, 52%, and 60% vs. 45%. https://www.investmentnews.com/practice-management/sports-betting-is-pulling-gen-z-dollars-away-from-investing-betterment-finds/267806
15. Covers, “Survey Finds Most American Adults Gambled Before Turning 21” (Harris Poll commissioned by the National Council on Problem Gambling, NCPG) (March 2, 2026) – 65%, 33% vs. 11%, and a quote from Heather Maurer. https://www.covers.com/industry/survey-finds-most-american-adults-gambled-before-turning-21-march-2-2026
16. GBH News, “Young adults mostly shrug at sports betting risks, study finds” (NORC study commissioned by the Massachusetts Gaming Commission) (August 30, 2026). https://www.wgbh.org/news/local/2026-08-30/young-adults-mostly-shrug-at-sports-betting-risks-study-finds