Former Congressman Santos to Pay $35,000 in Kalshi Trading Case

Investigators say that between February 12 and February 25, 2026, Santos traded a contract titled “Who will attend the State of the Union?” He placed a bet on whether he himself would show up at the 2026 event.

How Kalshi caught the trade

The CFTC also credited Kalshi directly for catching the activity before anyone else did, noting the platform flagged the trades on its own initiative and brought them to regulators’ attention. That detail carries its own message beyond the case itself, it signals Kalshi is willing to act on manipulation concerns regardless of who’s on the other side of the trade, congressional seat or not.

A similar case tied to the White House

Santos is not the only person close to power caught in this kind of case. A teleprompter operator who works for President Trump also came under investigation after he placed bets on what the president would say or not say during live broadcasts. His trades lined up with the exact times of those broadcasts. That case has not led to criminal charges, and reports say the operator is now in settlement talks with the CFTC as well.

What this means for prediction markets

Both cases count as insider trading, since each man knew what he himself planned to do before other traders had that information. Yet both cases ended in a fine and a settlement, not a criminal trial.

A similar story played out in another country. In the UK, several Conservative Party figures, including MPs and senior officials, placed bets with bookmakers on the date of the 2024 general election before the date became public. The scandal that followed hit the party hard and stayed in the news for weeks.