FIFA’s Prediction Market Partner Draws Scrutiny Over $108M in Trades

The findings appeared in an October 17 investigation by The Wall Street Journal. Researchers examining public blockchain records found hundreds of accounts trading among themselves, including two wallets that generated more than $81 million in transactions during the tournament.

Two Wallets Exchanged Over $81M During the World Cup

The investigation began with work by three Harvard students who examined trading activity on Predictstreet. They identified 795 wallets with financial connections, many of which had received funds from an account that also collected fees from the platform.

The concentration became particularly pronounced after August. From late that month, the network reportedly generated 99% of transactions, with much of the activity taking place between wallets in the same group.

The earlier $81 million figure came from just two accounts trading during the World Cup. Outside specialists consulted by the newspaper considered the wider pattern consistent with artificial activity rather than ordinary trading between unrelated customers.

$108M Accounted for 64.7% of Reported Volume

The flagged trades made up 64.7% of Predictstreet’s $167 million turnover through September, based on 15M’s calculation. The 99% figure refers only to trading from late August.

The Journal’s findings raise questions about the origin of the volume. They do not establish who controlled the wallets or directed the transactions.

FIFA Deal and Gibraltar Review

FIFA named ADI Predictstreet its official prediction-market partner in April 2026. The agreement included provisions for real-time monitoring of suspicious trades and information sharing.

The company had also announced surveillance arrangements involving Sumsub, Global Ledger and Modulus before the tournament. It remains unclear whether the transactions identified by the Journal were flagged under those systems.

In July, FIRST.bet outlined plans to offer ADI Predictstreet’s markets to sportsbook operators in Latin America. Predict Street Limited appears under PMA01 in Gibraltar’s prediction-market register. The Journal says the regulator found no violations during its preliminary review.