Europe’s Illegal Gambling Estimates Split by €73.6bn
The higher number comes from the European Casino Association. A study commissioned by the ECA from Gambling Compliance International estimated the illegal online market targeting EU consumers at €91.6 billion last year. That was around 14% higher than in 2024.
The association also estimated €22.9 billion in lost tax revenue. More than 6,200 unlicensed operators were identified as targeting consumers across Europe.
EGBA arrived at a much smaller number. The European Gaming and Betting Association estimated illegal online gambling GGR at roughly €18 billion for 2025. In its calculation, that represented 27% of the European online market.
Estimates Start From Different Bases
The difference between the two headline numbers is €73.6 billion. They should not be read as competing totals produced from the same set of data.
ECA and EGBA used separate research and different definitions of the market they were measuring. There is also no official EU figure available as a direct comparison.
This becomes relevant when black-market estimates are used elsewhere. Tax calculations are one example. Channelization figures and assessments of enforcement can also change considerably depending on the estimate used.
The €22.9 billion cited by ECA is itself a calculated tax loss. It does not represent unpaid tax identified by national authorities. An earlier ECA study carried out with Yield Sec used an assumed 25% tax rate across the EU when calculating potential revenue losses.
National Data Shows Why Measurement Is Difficult
Regulators are finding similar problems at the country level. Germany’s GGL published research in March that estimated illegal online gambling at 22.97% of the market, leaving a channelization rate of 77.03%. The study was commissioned from Blockchain Research Lab and also examined which methods are suitable for measuring activity that is difficult to observe directly.
Dutch figures give a different view of the same issue. The Kansspelautoriteit estimated that around 91% of Dutch gamblers used only licensed operators in the second half of 2025. Measured by money, however, licensed operators captured only 53% of the market. The regulator suspects losses are considerably higher on illegal sites.
A market can therefore look well-channeled when measured by people and much weaker when measured by spending.
One Market, Very Different Numbers
There is still no agreed figure for Europe’s illegal gambling market. ECA puts it at €91.6 billion. EGBA’s estimate is €18 billion.
That gap makes some comparisons difficult. A country may report stronger channelization or tougher enforcement, but the result depends partly on what is counted as illegal activity in the first place.
The same issue applies to tax losses. The €22.9 billion figure is based on an estimate of market size, rather than tax bills that authorities have identified and failed to collect.
For regulators, the illegal market is clearly still there. Its exact size is another question, and the current studies do not give the same answer.