Catena Media Flags €35M Write-Down as Q3 Revenue Falls 29%

Management identified two problems. AI-assisted search is changing how people find gambling brands, while the company’s conventional search rankings have weakened. Some operators also scaled back advertising during the summer. Catena did not quantify how much of the revenue decline was caused by AI search alone.

Revenue Falls to €8.3M as 2026 Targets Are Dropped

In its 16 October market disclosure, Catena published unaudited preliminary results for July-September:

• Revenue – €8.3 million, down from €11.6 million in Q3 2025;
• Adjusted EBITDA – €0.7 million, compared with €2.9 million a year earlier;
• Nine-month revenue – €30.1 million, against €31.0 million in 2025;
• Expected impairment – €30–35 million, to be recognised in Q3.

The company no longer expects double-digit organic growth in either revenue or adjusted EBITDA this year. It previously set both as targets for 2026.

Write-Down Equals Up to 4.2 Quarters of Revenue

The impairment is not a cash payment. It reduces the carrying value of intangible assets, rather than representing €35 million leaving the business.

Its size is nevertheless notable. Based on Catena’s €8.3 million quarterly revenue, 15M calculates that the €30-35 million charge equals approximately 3.6-4.2 quarters of sales.

This is not the first such adjustment. Catena recognised a €16.5 million impairment in Q3 2025, involving North American sports assets and Asia-Pacific casino assets. The latest expected charge is roughly 1.8-2.1 times larger, although the assets covered by this year’s write-down have not yet been specified.

A second calculation changes the picture of quarterly profitability. Catena’s €0.7 million adjusted EBITDA includes a €0.7 million reversal of expenses previously accrued for its 2026 employee bonus programme. Without that positive accounting effect, adjusted EBITDA would have been approximately zero, all else equal. That is an illustrative calculation, not a separate earnings figure reported by the company.

CPA Exposure Leaves Little Revenue Cushion

Catena says more than 90% of new customers come through cost-per-acquisition agreements. Under these deals, revenue depends heavily on bringing operators fresh customers, leaving a limited stream of recurring income when search traffic slows.

The company is trying to broaden its business through TraffiqX, a planned publisher-advertiser platform scheduled to launch in the first quarter of 2027, alongside prediction markets and loyalty initiatives. TraffiqX has not launched yet.

North America Generated 97% of Q2 Revenue

Catena’s Q2 2026 report showed North America contributing 97% of quarterly revenue. No Q3 regional split accompanied the preliminary announcement.

Catena plans to issue its full Q3 report on 10 November, when investors should get more detail on the impairment and financial performance.