Robinhood’s Prediction-Market Trading Outpaces Revenue Growth

In Q2, Robinhood recorded 13.6 billion contracts traded and $156 million in event-contract revenue. The two quarters provide a basis for comparing revenue growth with trading activity.

Trading Volume Grew Almost Twice as Fast

The number of contracts traded increased 20.6% quarter-on-quarter. Revenue was up 10.9%.

A comparison of Robinhood’s Q2 earnings presentation and Q3 presentation gives the following figures:

• Q2 2026 – 1.147 cents in revenue per contract traded;
• Q3 2026 – 1.055 cents per contract;
• Quarterly decline – 8.0%.

Robinhood does not publish this ratio as a separate performance metric. It is calculated by dividing reported event-contract revenue by the number of contracts traded through its Prediction Markets Hub.

The calculation also includes revenue from Rothera, the exchange operated through Robinhood’s joint venture with Susquehanna International Group. That part of the business changes the comparison.

Rothera Accounted for 65% of Revenue Growth

Rothera contributed $28 million to event-contract revenue in Q3, against $17 million in Q2. Its $11 million increase represented nearly 65% of Robinhood’s total $17 million quarterly revenue gain in this category.

Without Rothera, the numbers look different. The remaining event-contract revenue rose from $139 million to $145 million, an increase of just 4.3%.

Dividing those amounts by the hub’s reported trading volumes produces another result: approximately 1.02 cents per contract in Q2 and 0.88 cents in Q3. That is a 13.5% decline.

Rothera’s own exchange volume also grew, from 2.1 billion contracts in Q2 to 3.4 billion in Q3. These figures cover trades by Robinhood customers and other exchange participants. They are measured separately from contracts traded through Robinhood’s hub and should not be added to its volume totals.

Another 2.8 Billion Contracts Added Just $6M

Robinhood handled 2.8 billion more contracts through its hub in Q3. Excluding Rothera, the additional activity coincided with only $6 million in revenue growth.

The figures point to two different growth rates within Robinhood’s event-contract business. Rothera accounted for almost two-thirds of the quarterly revenue increase, while revenue excluding the exchange grew by just 4.3%.