Prediction Markets Push Up Sportsbook CPAs, Intelitics Says

Prediction markets are adding a new bidder for sportsbook traffic, with affiliate placements and paid-media auctions already becoming more expensive, according to Intelitics CEO Allan Stone.

Stone said the change is showing up before the sector has enough historical data to know what a prediction-market customer is worth over a full year. In a September 13 interview with European Gaming, he pointed to Kalshi’s World Cup campaign.

The platform recorded about 6 million app downloads, while women were close to one-third of its traders by late June. Stone contrasted that reach with a team of roughly 15 people.

Sportsbooks are now meeting that same category in acquisition channels they already use.

Prediction Markets Compete for Affiliate Shelf Space

Stone said affiliate inventory is finite. A premium position that previously went to one sportsbook can now be sold to a prediction market instead.

Those deals can use CPA, revenue share or hybrid pricing. Affiliates therefore have another buyer for the same traffic, while sportsbooks have to defend placements that were previously contested mainly by other betting brands.

The same applies to paid media. Prediction platforms and betting operators offering event contracts can enter the same auctions and target overlapping audiences. According to Stone, that is already putting upward pressure on sportsbook CPAs.

Better Collective Data Shows the Shift

There is already some evidence of that shift in affiliate revenue. Better Collective reported that its North American CPA revenue rose 50% year over year to €5 million in Q2, primarily due to prediction markets. Group-wide CPA revenue increased 11%.

That puts North American CPA growth at roughly 4.5 times the group rate. The figures do not show how much individual sportsbook CPAs have moved, but they do show that prediction-market demand is already producing a disproportionate increase in affiliate acquisition revenue.

World Cup Cohorts Still Need More Time

Stone also cautioned against reading too much into early customer-value numbers. Kalshi and Polymarket both saw sports activity drop after the World Cup. That makes the tournament a useful acquisition case, but not yet a full retention benchmark.

The missing number is 12-month LTV. Stone said prediction markets simply do not have enough mature cohorts yet to give operators or affiliates the same visibility they are used to with sportsbooks.

For now, the clearest change is on the acquisition side: more buyers are competing for the same traffic, and sportsbooks are already paying into that market.