IG Group Applies for UK Gambling Licence Ahead of Underdog Acquisition

This plan coincides with the proposed acquisition of Underdog, a US-based fantasy sports and prediction markets company. That deal is expected to close in late 2026 or early 2027.

Financial Prediction Markets Arrive First

Financial prediction markets launch in Q4 2026 for UK professional clients, ahead of any consumer rollout. The broader politics and sport markets depend on the licence application and are pencilled in for early 2027.

IG’s integrated offering, which combines trading, investing and crypto on a single platform, is already operating in the UK. The company notes that customers who use multiple products generate about three times the revenue per user compared to those who use just one product.

Over 21 months, the UK grew active customers and net revenue at roughly double the rate of IG’s other markets. These statistics are included in the regulatory announcement.

Revenue per Active Customer Fell About 26%

Total revenue for the third quarter was £240.5 million, a 14% decrease from the previous year. Net trading revenue dropped 15% to £212.3 million, while the number of active customers increased 17% to 864,700. Assets under administration reached a new high of £22.4 billion.

Those two directions do not align. Revenue per active customer worked out at roughly £278 for the quarter, against about £378 a year earlier, a fall of close to 26%. The comparison is a 15M calculation from the disclosed revenue and customer figures. The base year is derived from the stated growth rates, so both ends are approximate.

No changes were made to the forecast from the trading update on 2 October. The group anticipates mid-single-digit revenue growth in 2026 and an EBITDA margin in the low 40s, excluding around £30 million in redomicile and restructuring expenses.

Jersey Move and Underdog Close Share a Window

The redomicile to Jersey, if court-approved, is expected to become effective towards the end of 2026 or early 2027. The completion of Underdog is expected in the same time frame, which means that two structural changes will be reported in a single period.

IG has been restructured into three divisions: IG Consumer, IG Securities and tastytrade. Medium-term guidance, excluding Underdog, anticipates organic revenue growth of 10% or more per year from a 2025 revenue base of approximately £1,100 million.

"Trading, investing and entertainment are converging, and IG is well placed to capitalise on the opportunity," said Breon Corcoran, chief executive.

Subject to share price and other capital demands, share repurchases are expected to recommence in 2027. The next fixed event is the completion of Underdog, which is pending regulatory approval.