The 2026 FIFA World Cup is expected to lift sports betting deposits in Brazil. The estimate from H2 Gambling Capital is that the event may result in additional deposits to bookmakers in the range of R$20 billion to R$25 billion.
This figure refers to deposits, not operator revenue. The final revenue impact will depend on payouts, margins and betting activity during the tournament.
Tax Receipts Show Faster Market Growth
The projection regarding the World Cup is based on the strong opening of the licensed betting industry in Brazil in 2026. According to the data quoted in Folha de S.Paulo, tax revenue from betting grew from R$2.2 billion to R$4.5 billion during the first four months of the year, relative to the same period last year.
Revenue for the operators reached approximately R$12.2 billion between January and April. Since January 1, 2025, only companies authorised by the Secretariat of Prizes and Betting have been allowed to operate nationally in Brazil.
Since the start of the regulated market, 85 licenses have been granted by the Ministry of Finance. At the moment, those licences cover 187 authorised betting sites.
Brazil’s Player Base Keeps Expanding
The growth is also noticeable through the number of users. Government data cited by Folha shows that around 25 million CPF tax IDs were linked to betting activity in 2025, up from 17 million in the first half of that year.
The average monthly betting expenditure was estimated at R$123. The amount referred to the deposit after the deduction of the winnings and not the gross deposit.
The World Cup could also bring more casual users into the market, especially because football already dominates betting advertising in Brazil. The national teams’ competition serves as yet another channel for reaching casual punters who normally pay little attention to club tournaments.
Consumer Risk Moves Up the Agenda
The expansion has created more concerns around potential problems related to harm and gambling debts. A Unifesp study cited by Folha found that 4.4% of bettors showed signs of problem gambling, above the global average of about 2%.
This raises a policy issue for Brazil. More tax revenue bolsters the argument for regulation. Concurrently, World Cup-related betting activity also tends to be more intense, which could have implications for the stringency of affordability checks, self-exclusion schemes, and advertising rules.
Illegal Operators Remain a Core Test
There is more than just licensed sites at stake here. Unauthorized gambling websites continue competing for Brazilian gamblers, who don’t necessarily have to comply with the same taxation, identification, and safer gambling standards.
The World Cup will show whether Brazil’s licensed market can absorb a major demand spike while keeping users inside regulated channels. The bigger test is not the size of deposits alone, but whether tax growth, enforcement, and player protection rules move at the same pace.
