88% Call Political Bets by Congress and Staff Inappropriate

The September 30-October 5 survey covered 4,506 U.S. adults through Ipsos’ KnowledgePanel, with a margin of sampling error of ±1.5 percentage points for the full sample at the 95% confidence level. The question addressed whether political-event betting was appropriate for five professional groups, not whether those groups should be legally barred from it.

Five Groups Draw at Least 82% Disapproval

The October polling topline records the following shares saying the activity was inappropriate:

• 88% – Members of Congress and their staff;
• 88% – President and members of the administration;
• 85% – U.S. military personnel;
• 84% – Civilian federal government employees;
• 82% – Members of the news media.

The five results fall within a six-percentage-point range, based on a comparison of the published figures. Media professionals drew the lowest objection rate of the five, yet more than four in five respondents still considered their participation inappropriate.

Republicans and Democrats Give Similar Answers

Views on congressional trading were close across the two main parties. Among Republican respondents, 89% called it inappropriate for lawmakers and their staff to bet on political events. The share was 93% among Democrats, a four-point difference.

The gap narrowed further for members of the news media: 84% of Republicans and 86% of Democrats found such betting inappropriate. Respondents were also asked about the president and administration officials. Here, 88% of Republicans and 93% of Democrats answered "inappropriate."

Registered voters were somewhat more likely than the full adult sample to disapprove. The figures were 92% for members of Congress and staff and 86% for the news media, both four percentage points above the corresponding all-adult results.

Reuters’ October 12 report focused on election betting, government events and regulatory disputes involving Kalshi and Polymarket. The news-media finding was included in Ipsos’ detailed tables.

Sports Contracts Draw 16 Points More Support Than Elections

Another set of questions concerned the events being traded, without singling out a profession. Support was 29% for prediction-market wagers on professional sports and 13% for U.S. election results. That is a 16-percentage-point difference calculated from the same Ipsos table.

Support fell to 9% for contracts involving government policy announcements or decisions, and 8% for U.S. military actions. Opposition to these two categories reached 63% and 65%, respectively. Asked whether wagering on real-world events through prediction markets counts as gambling, 75% said yes.