Brazil Shuts Down Betting: What Affiliates With Brazilian Traffic Should Do Next

On September 25, 2026, Brazilian President Lula signed Provisional Measure (Medida Provisória) No. 1.394/2026. It banned fixed-odds betting in the country – including its organization, offering, brokering, and advertising. On October 6, licensed websites went offline, and on October 25, the licenses themselves expired. The measure is in effect for 60 days, with the possibility of a 60-day extension; unless Congress enacts it into law, it expires. We’ll break down what the text of the measure means for affiliates, what operators have said about revenue, where demand has shifted, and where traffic can be redirected without violating the law.

Key Takeaways

• The advertising ban in Article 16 of MP 1.394/2026 is broader than the term “advertising.” It covers any content that “offers, promotes, distributes, or facilitates access” to betting for a Brazilian audience, regardless of the format or form of compensation. This description applies to affiliate traffic. A violation is considered abusive advertising under the Consumer Protection Code, and a separate bill proposes a prison term of 2 to 4 years for such advertising;
• Operators have taken stock of their losses: Flutter expects a revenue shortfall of about $70 million for 2026; Entain reported a 36% decline in NGR in Brazil for the third quarter; the company attributes this to “disciplined marketing” in a challenging market ahead of the ban; and Betsson has suspended new registrations, deposits, and all marketing activities. No one has publicly commented on the fate of affiliate commissions. Affiliate coverage of the 20 most promoted brands shrank from 715 to 418 sites over the course of a week;
• Congress has not yet begun work on the measure: members were named on September 30; as of November 4, it is still ‘awaiting installation’; 99 amendments have been filed, some of which would reinstate sports betting. On November 9, the measure will enter the urgency regime, which blocks the chamber’s agenda; the first 60-day period ends on November 23, with a possible extension for another 60 days. Three lawsuits in the Supreme Court are awaiting a ruling by Justice Luiz Fux.

Timeline: From Signing to License Expiration

The measure went into effect immediately upon its publication. Subsequently, various deadlines stated in Articles 4, 7, 8, 9, and 16 were set: 10 days for the closing down of the websites and removal of ads, 2 days for the transfer of data to banks, 7 days for refunds, and 30 days for the revocation of the licenses. Meanwhile, three processes were ongoing and simultaneously ran their own timers: The constitutional deadline given to Congress, the lawsuits before the Supreme Court, and the election process.

Table 1. Chronology of MP 1.394/2026. Sources: 1–8, 10, 11, 13, 15, 16, 17, 22, 31–33.

What the Measure’s Text Says About Affiliates

The terms “afiliado” and “influenciador” do not appear in the text. However, there are provisions that cover them. Article 1 prohibits not only the organization and offering of bets, but also intermediation (intermediação) and advertising (publicidade). Article 16 prohibits the advertising, promotion, marketing, and sponsorship of betting in any format. Paragraph 1 of that article extends the prohibition to any content that “offers, promotes, distributes, or facilitates access” to betting and is directed at a Brazilian audience, “regardless of the format or form of compensation.” RevShare, CPA, fixed payment, barter – the measure applies equally to all forms. A ten-day grace period was granted for the removal of content already published, meaning by October 5.

Article 17 makes one exception: content published before September 25 in which betting advertisements appear only incidentally. The page “Brazil’s Best Bookmakers” does not qualify (15M estimate).

Article 18 sets forth the penalty. A violation of Articles 16 and 17 is considered abusive advertising under Article 37, §2 of the Consumer Protection Code, with measures provided for in Article 56 thereof, including counter-advertising, “without prejudice to civil and criminal liability.” Consumer protection authorities conduct investigations and have the right to preemptively suspend the publication of such content. Articles 19–22 apply to platforms: social media sites, search engines, and app stores are required to proactively prevent such content and remove it upon notification; otherwise, they face a fine of up to 10% of the group’s revenue in Brazil (If there is no revenue – R$10–R$1,000 per user, with a cap of R$50 million per violation). For affiliates, this means that a page or profile can be removed upon notification from the Ministry of Justice without a court order: as of September 29, 300 Facebook pages and 90 Instagram profiles had been taken down.

A separate bill, PL 5.477/2026, was introduced alongside the measure. It proposes a prison term of two to four years for advertising betting and recruiting players. The sentence is increased by half if the compensation – a fixed commission (CPA) or a share of players’ bets and losses (RevShare) – is tied to the registration or recruitment of players (Art. 35-I, §4). Exceptions include journalistic, informational, educational, scientific, and critical content (§2). The bill is being fast-tracked under constitutional urgency: if the Chamber does not consider it by November 12, it will block the Chamber’s agenda starting November 13. This is still a draft bill, but on October 20, Yogonet already reported on influencers from Ceará who continue to advertise illegal casinos.

Congress and the Courts: Three Scenarios

The provisional measure takes effect upon publication but remains in force for 60 days, with a possible extension for another 60 days; the clock pauses during parliamentary recesses, so, according to Migalhas’ calculations, the deadline could be pushed back to early March 2027. A joint committee of deputies and senators was appointed on September 30; however, according to Focus Gaming News, as of October 20, it was listed in the Senate system as “awaiting installation” – without a chair, vice chair, or rapporteur. The window for submitting amendments closed on October 13: 99 were filed, and 5 were withdrawn; among them are proposals to reinstate sports betting and limit the ban to online casinos only. From November 9, the measure will block the chamber’s agenda, and the first deadline expires on November 23.

There are three possible scenarios: Congress approves the measure, and the ban becomes law; the measure is amended – for example, sports are exempted while casinos are banned; or the measure is not considered within the deadline and expires – but under Article 62, Section 11 of the Constitution, everything done while it was in effect remains in force.

A legal proceeding is underway in parallel. The following cases have been filed with the STF: ADI 8024 (Anseja is requesting that the measure be suspended in its entirety or that a transition period of at least 6 months be granted), ADI 8027 (ANJL is requesting that licenses be maintained until a decision is made by Congress or the court), and ADI 8028 (ANPV). The rapporteur is Justice Luiz Fux. On October 2, he gave the Attorney General’s Office 72 hours to respond; it filed its position on October 5 (published October 6) against suspending the measure and proposed further public hearings.

The only known attempt to proceed through the trial court ended quickly: on October 8, the Federal Court of São Paulo authorized Stake to operate until October 25 under twelve conditions, but on October 9, TRF-3 President Johonsom Di Salvo overturned the decision at the government’s request, citing inequality among operators and the risk of a “multiplier effect.”

The political landscape changed on October 25: Lula won the second round with 51.79% of the vote, compared to 48.21% for Flávio Bolsonaro. In its 8-K filing, Flutter articulated the operators’ position: “Should Congress reject this measure, we would expect our online sports betting and iGaming activity to recommence.” For affiliates, this means one thing: domains and content related to the Brazilian market should be kept offline or closed to Brazilian users, not deleted.

Operators: What They Said and What It Means for Commissions

Flutter announced on September 28 that it had ceased operating and, in an 8-K filing, estimated the impact: if Flutter Brazil is unable to operate through the end of the year, 2026 revenue will decrease by approximately $70 million, and adjusted EBITDA will decrease by $20 million. On the balance sheet for the second quarter, the Brazilian business was recorded with $539 million in goodwill, $127 million in customer relationships and $124 million in trademarks; the company is assessing non-cash write-downs. Statement: “Flutter is extremely disappointed by this development and is reviewing all available options, including the potential to appeal.”

On October 15, Entain reported a 36% decline in NGR in Brazil for the third quarter – even before the ban took full effect. The company says this reflects ‘disciplined marketing and player engagement in an increasingly challenging market’ before the ban. The group’s online NGR rose by 3%; excluding Brazil, it rose by 5%. The company updated its guidance on September 28 to reflect the ban and reiterated it on October 15, factoring in the ban’s continuation through the end of 2026. In its third-quarter report dated October 22, Betsson described the actions taken by its Brazilian subsidiary: registration of new customers and deposits have been suspended, “all advertising, marketing, and sponsorship activities” have been halted, and regarding the market, the report noted “significant uncertainty … regarding the long-term viability” of the recently launched regulated market. Superbet announced the end of operations on the evening of October 5; according to Lance, its contract with the São Paulo club stipulates a 90-day suspension or termination without penalty if the ban becomes permanent. A similar clause is likely included in affiliate agreements with a regulatory provision — this is a 15M estimate; check yours.

The affiliate segment of the market reacted more quickly than the operators. According to data from Blask for NEXT.io, the number of affiliate sites promoting the 20 most prominent brands fell from 715 to 418 – a 41.5% drop – in the week ending September 29: bet365’s dropped from 60 to 31, Stake’s from 51 to 38, and Betano’s to 33. “Affiliates that depend only on Brazil are under the most pressure,” said Luiz Felippe Correia de Almeida, CEO of Smart Social, at the time.

No one has publicly commented on the commissions: neither Flutter Brazil (Betnacional), nor Betano, nor Superbet, nor Betsson. Therefore, we must rely on the text of the regulation and the contract. Article 10 addresses obligations to the government (regulatory, tax, and financial), including reporting and five-year record-keeping; it says nothing about affiliate agreements, so this is only an indirect argument (15M estimate). Article 8 requires the operator to set aside funds for player refunds, subject to a penalty of R$200,000 per day. The legal entity does not cease to exist overnight, and it still has records for September. Therefore, it is necessary to export the statistics for the periods up to September 25 and October 6, document the outstanding balance in writing, request a payment schedule, and clarify which legal entity will make the payment – the Brazilian entity or the parent group. Article 14 prohibits banks from conducting betting transactions other than those needed to wind down operations and refund players; based on the 15M interpretation, the payment of the commission is not prohibited, but this has not been confirmed; please check with the bank and a lawyer.

Where Has Demand Gone, and Why Can’t We Follow It?

Blask measures brand search demand, not bets. From January 2025 through September 24, 2026, offshore brands accounted for an average of 3.9% of the Brazilian index; on the eve of the ban, that figure was 3.4%. On September 29, their share rose to 9.9%, and since October 1 – according to Blask’s October 12 digest – the offshore share of the index remains within the 20–29% range. The reason lies not in the growth of offshore operators, but in the collapse of licensed brands: from October 2 to 8, demand for them was 89% lower than in the week before the ban – Betano −91%, bet365 −89%, Superbet −90%, Sportingbet −93%. Offshore demand for the same week was even 10% lower than in September.

The offshore market’s redistribution is lopsided. According to a SportsBoom interview with CMO Blask Yana Makarochkina (October 21), the 1win index shows values that are 6-8 times greater than in September, and makes up roughly 95% of the net increase in offshore search traffic. Values for Melbet are approximately 4 times greater than in September. The number of active players, however, has decreased. For the week of October 6-12, 27% of former legal players accessed any betting site, as opposed to 47% for an average week, and 9.7% of formerly “exclusively legal” players accessed unlicensed betting sites, as opposed to approximately 6% for formerly “exclusively legal” players before the ban.

“The ban does not create that market. It hands it the other 30 million customers,” said Ricardo Bianco Rosada, founder of brmkt.co. For affiliates, this is both a temptation and a trap. The prohibition in Article 1 also applies to operators abroad that offer betting services to people in Brazil, while Article 16, paragraph 1, applies to any content that facilitates access to such services. So the list of don’ts is short and has no exceptions: do not promote offshore brands to a Brazilian audience, whether as reviews, mirrors, or bypass guides; do not move old Brazilian SEO pages to new domains; do not use Brazilian player databases for mailings or retargeting – bill PL 5.477/2026 would create a separate offence for using personal data to recruit players. 15M does not provide advice on how to circumvent the ban, nor will it.

Where to Redirect Traffic: Alternatives in Latin America

This is about repackaging the expertise, not about transferring content: the four regulated Spanish-speaking markets differ in terms of licensing models, taxation, and the methods used to verify a brand’s legality.

Table 2. Regulated Latin American markets as an alternative to Brazilian traffic. Sources: 23–29. Chile is not included: the bill on online betting has not been passed.

Mexico (SEGOB), Colombia (Coljuegos), and Peru (MINCETUR) follow the model of a single national regulator; Argentina does not – there, licenses are issued on a provincial basis. Taxes eat into profit margins everywhere: in Mexico, the IEPS is 50%; in Colombia, it’s about 32% of GGR.

Affiliate Checklist

1. Remove all content from the Brazilian audience that falls under Article 16, Section 1: links, promo codes, ratings, and Telegram posts. The deadline was October 5. Old content with incidental mentions (Article 17) may be left as is; controversial content should be removed.
2. Download statistics for each Brazilian program for two dates: September 25 (suspension of new deposits) and October 6 (offline). Save screenshots of the user dashboards.
3. Document the outstanding balance in writing and request a payment schedule and the name of the legal entity responsible for payment. Keep a record of the responses.
4. Review the contracts: provisions regarding regulatory changes, force majeure, payment terms following termination, and audit rights.
5. Do not use databases of Brazilian players for email campaigns or retargeting, and do not share them with third parties.
6. Set up monitoring: MPV 1394/2026 on congressonacional.leg.br, the STF portal for ADI 8024/8027/8028, on November 9 and 23.
7. Keep domains, content, and SEO history for the Brazilian market private; do not make them accessible to the Brazilian audience. Flutter expects to resume if Congress rejects the measure.
8. For each new GEO, answer the following five questions: Who issues the license? Where is the registry located? What is the GGR tax rate? What are the advertising regulations? Through which legal entity does the program make payments?
9. In Mexico and Argentina, check each brand against the licensing registry or the .bet.ar domain; create separate landing pages for each province.
10. Request the terms from the LatAm programs again – RevShare after taxes, CPA, minimum thresholds – and don’t settle for “the same as in Brazil.”

What This Means

Solo affiliates with a Brazilian portfolio. Brazil will be off-limits to you at least until Congress makes a decision. If this measure is approved, it will be a long time before you can operate there again. Treat September payments as a paperwork task, not a waiting game. Choose the next market you will trade in based on the regulator’s list and not on the CPA amount.

To networks and media buyers. The loss of 715 to 418 sites in one week illustrates how quickly the market has adjusted. If your portfolio has any Brazilian offers, from licensed or offshore brands, take them down; Articles 1 and 16 make no distinction between licensed and unlicensed advertisers.

To the operators’ affiliate managers. Silence about commissions is a reputational risk in other markets. A public position on September payments, even a deferred one, is cheaper than losing affiliates in Peru or Colombia, where those same affiliates will choose between you and your competitors.

Methodology

As of November 4, 2026. All amounts are in the source currency. Provisions of MP 1.394/2026 are cited from the Planalto text; translations of wording by 15M. The Blask Index measures brand search demand and not, for instance, visits or bets. Shares and multiples depend on the comparison window, and therefore, the text provides a range, derived from Blask’s original works. The number of queried domains, as well as the number of blocked domains (5,209 and 2,387, respectively), is as of September 29. Later, more current figures obtained from publicly available documents and/or SPA diverge in open sources and were not used. Public statements by operators, which are the subject of the analysis, confirming the existence and/or amount of affiliate payments, have not been found. 15M estimates are labelled as such, where provided. Committee status: the official Congress page on November 4 (‘awaiting installation’) and Focus Gaming News as of October 20.

This material does not constitute legal advice. Before making any decisions regarding content, contracts, or payments, consult with an attorney licensed to practice in Brazil and in the relevant jurisdiction.

Sources

1. Presidência da República (Planalto), “Medida Provisória nº 1.394, de 25 de setembro de 2026”, September 25, 2026 — Articles 1, 4, 7–10, 14, 16–22. https://www.planalto.gov.br/ccivil_03/_ato2023-2026/2026/mpv/mpv1394.htm
2. Congresso Nacional, “MPV 1394/2026 — Medidas Provisórias” — deadlines of November 23, 2026 and the urgency regime starting on November 9, 2026; amendments. https://www.congressonacional.leg.br/materias/medidas-provisorias/-/mpv/175871
3. Agência Senado, “MP proíbe bets e determina encerramento das operações em 30 dias”, September 28, 2026 — deadlines and sanctions. https://www12.senado.leg.br/noticias/materias/2026/09/28/mp-proibe-bets-e-determina-encerramento-das-operacoes-em-30-dias