US NFL Betting Handle Set to Stay Flat at $29.5B in 2026

Legal wagering on the 2026 NFL season is expected to reach $29.5 billion, according to the American Gaming Association. That is only $100 million above last season after several years of strong US sports betting growth.

The estimate covers preseason games, futures placed from March, the regular season, playoffs and Super Bowl LXI in February 2027. The AGA based the forecast on national handle growth so far in 2026 and football-specific reporting from selected states.

Legal NFL Wagering Adds Just $100M

Last season’s estimated NFL handle was $29.4 billion. If the new projection holds, year-on-year growth will be close to zero even as regulated sports betting remains available across a large part of the US.

The AGA has linked the slowdown partly to the expansion of prediction markets offering sports event contracts nationwide. These platforms compete for many of the same customers and sporting events as traditional sportsbooks, but they operate under a different regulatory model.

The trade group estimates that prediction markets have diverted over $1.3 billion in potential state gaming tax revenue since 2025. That figure is an AGA estimate rather than a total of reported losses from individual states.

Younger Traders Add Another Pressure Point

The AGA also highlighted activity among customers aged 18 to 20. It estimates that around $5.1 billion of Kalshi’s sports volume has come from users in this age group.

The calculation is based on a previous Kalshi disclosure that 4% of its trading volume came from 18-to-20-year-olds. According to the AGA, those customers are below the legal sportsbook betting age in 35 of the 40 US jurisdictions where sports wagering is permitted.

Separate Optimove research shows how much prediction markets already overlap with the sportsbook audience. Its August survey of 926 US NFL bettors found that 84% knew about prediction markets. Another 60% said they planned to trade, buy or sell event contracts during the year.

NFL Season Puts Both Products in Competition

AGA President and CEO Bill Miller described sports event contracts as “backdoor sports betting.” He argued that their expansion has coincided with the slowdown in regulated handle growth. Prediction market platforms, meanwhile, maintain that their products do not have to follow the same state and tribal sportsbook rules.

One flat forecast cannot measure cannibalization on its own. The AGA’s methodology tracks sportsbook handle, not money moving from one product to another. Still, sportsbooks and prediction markets are now competing around the same NFL calendar. State betting handle therefore gives a less complete picture of US sports wagering activity than it did before event contracts reached their current scale.