Fliff and Onyx Prepare Move Into US Prediction Markets

Both firms are listed by the National Futures Association as pending NFA members, futures commission merchants, and swap firms. Approval would give the companies another way to reach customers interested in event contracts. It would not, however, turn either business into a prediction market exchange.

The Applications Cover an Intermediary Role

A futures commission merchant, or FCM, can take customer orders and hold funds used for futures and other derivatives transactions. Contracts themselves are listed by exchanges operating as CFTC-designated contract markets.

Fliff and Onyx are applying for the customer-facing part of the infrastructure rather than permission to run an exchange of their own. Onyx already has some experience with this structure. Its Onyx Predictions business operates as an NFA-registered introducing broker. An FCM registration would allow additional functions, including handling customer assets, to sit inside the group.

For Fliff, the filing creates a possible second route beyond its social sportsbook business.

Sweepstakes Pressure Changes the Options

Both brands built products around formats that differ from conventional state-licensed sportsbooks. Fliff uses a sweepstakes-style virtual currency model, while Onyx Odds has also operated in the social sports gaming market.

That corner of the US industry has faced a rougher regulatory environment. Lawmakers and regulators in more than a dozen states have moved against dual-currency sweepstakes products. Fliff had stopped offering its sweepstakes product in 20 states by the end of July, according to industry reporting.

Prediction markets offer a different regulatory route because event contracts fall under the federal derivatives framework when traded through CFTC-regulated infrastructure.

Other Gaming Firms Chose Different Paths

There is no single model for entering the sector. ProphetX went directly after exchange status and was designated as a contract market by the CFTC on June 11. Five days later, Ludlow Exchange received the same designation. CFTC filings identify Ludlow as doing business as Novig. Other gaming and fantasy companies have used partnerships, acquisitions, or intermediary registrations instead. 

The Fliff and Onyx filings fit the latter approach. They would give the brands regulated access infrastructure without requiring them to become exchanges themselves.

Applications Remain Pending

The applications are still pending, so neither filing guarantees a new product launch. But they show where two sweepstakes-linked businesses are putting regulatory resources.

For Fliff and Onyx, the filings point to another way of building a sports-related product in the US. Approval would not mean an immediate launch, but it would give both brands more options as the sweepstakes model comes under pressure in a growing number of states.