Brazil Cuts Illegal Betting Share From 2025 Levels

Unauthorized operators accounted for an estimated 38% to 44% of Brazil’s online betting market in the first half of 2026. The share has declined from last year, although a large part of betting activity still remains outside the licensed sector.

The estimate comes from the Fora do Radar 2.0 study prepared by LCA Consultores. It used research from Instituto Locomotiva and was commissioned by the Brazilian Institute of Responsible Gaming (IBJR).

The previous study put the illegal market at 41% to 51%. The new 38% to 44% range shows a decline at both ends of the estimate. Its midpoint has also moved down, from about 46% to 41%.

Instituto Locomotiva surveyed 2,291 people who had placed bets in 2026. The nationwide online survey was conducted in May and had a reported margin of error of 2.1 percentage points.

The figures indicate that some activity is shifting toward licensed operators after Brazil’s federal regulated market took effect in January 2025. The change is still modest. Even at the lower end of the estimate, well over one-third of online betting remains outside the authorized system.

Enforcement Extends Past Domain Blocking

Brazil has widened its response to illegal betting through financial controls, investigations, and action against unauthorized platforms. A recent case illustrates the risks behind the market-share figure. In August, Rio de Janeiro prosecutors launched Operation Aposta Suja against a suspected group operating betting sites without federal authorization. Investigators said the platforms directed deposits through shell companies and prevented some customers from withdrawing available funds.

A Coaf financial intelligence report linked the investigated people and companies to financial movements above R$1.4 billion. It also contained over 800 reports of suspicious transactions recorded between 2022 and 2026.

The regulated side has a clear identifier. Federally authorized betting websites must use the .bet.br extension. The Ministry of Finance also maintains a public register where bettors can check authorized operators and their approved domains.

The Gap Is Still Large

For Brazil, the 2026 figures show two things at once. The illegal market appears to be smaller than a year ago, but it is nowhere near marginal. With at least 38% of activity still estimated to sit outside the regulated sector, pressure on payment channels and unauthorized operators is likely to remain central to enforcement.