Bookies.com expects $3.1bn to be wagered through legal U.S. sportsbooks during the tournament. It also projects $2.37bn in trading volume on prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket.
Prediction Markets Add a New Layer
The second figure depicts the most crucial difference from the previous World Cup cycle. Prediction markets were not a significant sports medium among U.S. users during the 2022 event held in Qatar. However, by 2026, these platforms are expected to play a much larger role in sports-event wagering activity.
The sportsbook handle is not exactly the same thing as the prediction market’s trading volume. One could make trades more than once with the same position, increasing volume but deviating from the classic bet-for-bet scenario. Still, the forecast shows a distinct trend towards where U.S. soccer-related betting money may move.
Bigger Event Meets Better U.S. Timing
In terms of the tournament calendar, the 2026 World Cup provides more flexibility. First of all, the number of teams and matches has been increased: there will be 48 teams and 104 matches. The number of teams in 2022 was only 32, and there were 64 matches.
Moreover, the timing of the 2026 World Cup should be convenient for North American viewers compared to the one that was held in Qatar in 2022. Next time the championship will take place in the USA, Mexico, and Canada. The opening match will happen on June 11 in Mexico City, at Estadio Azteca stadium.
This can contribute to higher user activity throughout the day. It could also give media partners, affiliates, and bookies an easier way to create content based on matches without the timezone issue witnessed during 2022.
2022 Sets the Baseline
The American Gaming Association estimated before the 2022 tournament that 20.5 million U.S. adults planned to wager a combined $1.8bn. Now, Bookies.com estimates legal sportsbook handle alone to be worth $3.1bn in 2026.
The combined forecast reaches $5.47bn only when prediction-market volume is added to the legal sportsbook handle. This breakdown is critical for regulators and operators alike. It reveals that the World Cup betting economy is not just an ecosystem of state-licensed sportsbooks anymore.
For US gambling companies, the World Cup may become a test of soccer’s value as a betting product. Meanwhile, for prediction markets, it may prove to be an opportunity to demonstrate scalability under heavier public and regulatory attention.
Bottom Line
The 2026 World Cup forecast is less about one tournament and more about a changing U.S. betting map. Sportsbooks still hold the regulated betting lane, but prediction markets are now large enough to affect how major sports events are measured. The main question for 2026 is not only how much Americans spend, but how regulators decide to classify the growing share that moves outside the sportsbook model.
