H2GC’s latest forecast puts 2025 illegal gambling stakes at about £17bn, broadly in line with its earlier £16.6bn estimate for the year. By 2028, according to the same estimate, the figure could increase to £33 billion, with unlicensed sites accounting for 19.2% of all online betting and gaming stakes.
Forecast Puts Black Market Growth in Focus
This estimate includes both online casino games and sports betting. The scale is significant because unlicensed sites are not subject to the UK licensing rules. They do not meet safer gambling obligations, age restrictions, and dispute resolution standards that are imposed on licensed operators.
H2GC’s earlier research also shows how quickly the illegal market has grown. According to the consultancy, UK offshore gambling stake volume grew from around £5 billion in 2019 to £16.6 billion in 2025. The consultancy also said that legal activity dropped from 97% in 2019 to 92% in 2025.
BGC Links the Risk to Market Friction
Using the report, the Betting and Gaming Council reiterated its concerns regarding policy design. According to the trade body, too much regulation or increased taxes may make licensed gambling operators less attractive to their customers, who may opt for offshore websites instead.
The Gambling Commission has been reviewing evidence from its financial risk assessment pilot. The regulator says the assessments are not live and are designed to identify high-spending remote gambling customers who may be in financial difficulties.
As of now, the policy challenge is not about assessing risks. Rather, it lies in finding the proper means to assess risk while avoiding pushing legitimate users to offshore gambling sites. A lengthy, complicated, and paper-intensive process might work differently than a quiet background assessment.
Tax and Enforcement Pressure May Rise
The forecast also brings to light an important fiscal aspect. Licensed betting and gambling firms are taxed by the UK and staff in the regulated economy. Illegal operators do not contribute in the same way. Moreover, they can use that cost gap to offer looser limits or stronger incentives.
What to Watch Next
The next phase of the debate should focus on evidence, not slogans. UK regulators need checks that identify genuine financial risk with limited disruption. Ministers also need enforcement tools that make illegal operators harder to reach. If policy weakens the licensed market faster than enforcement can contain offshore sites, the black market may become the main winner.
