The Treasury Already Wrote Down How Entain Will Recover Its £25 Million

How that mitigation is expected to work is already written down — in the Treasury’s own costing of the measure.

The Costing Names the Lever

"The costing accounts for a behavioural response by gambling operators who may pass on some of the duty rise by lowering the Return to Player, leading to machine gambling demand falling and for some activity to shift towards remote gambling."

"An elasticity of -0.95 is used, with 25% of the reduction in stakes then assumed to substitute to Remote Gaming Duty. A general attrition assumption is applied to account for further demand reductions over time."

So the official model assumes players get a worse machine, play less, and that a quarter of what they stop staking in the shop reappears online. Entain operates on both sides of that substitution.

What the Rate Actually Does

"This measure increases the Machine Games Duty rate from 20% to 25% on machines with a maximum stake above £1 or a maximum prize above £100. Rates for lower stake machines remain unchanged. The measure will be effective from 1 April 2027."

The Budget sets out the purpose in plainer terms: "This higher rate will target machines which are more associated with gambling harm and commonly found in venues such as adult gaming centres. This revenue will help to pay for the freeze in business rates for retail, hospitality and leisure properties."

A second change follows a year later. "This measure moves Machine Games Duty liability to the supplier for supplier-owned machines operated under profit-share arrangements… The measure will be effective from 1 April 2028."

The Company’s Language

Entain called itself "disappointed" at the burden "on an already highly taxed industry", and said the rise "will have a detrimental impact on the wider industry, UK high streets, jobs and livelihoods".

Chief executive Stella David called it "another disappointing decision by the Government", said earlier increases have "already had detrimental consequences across the industry", and warned the changes will "push more people into the growing illegal market". On what comes next: "Our priority is to protect jobs wherever possible whilst supporting a sustainable retail presence."

Guidance for the year was left where it was, as was the expectation of £500 million of annual adjusted cash flow in 2028. The announcement puts no number on shops or jobs. The costing does not either; it records only that "the main uncertainties in this costing relate to the behavioural response".