On March 15, at the 98th Academy Awards ceremony, the Best Live Action Short Film award was shared by The Singers and Two People Exchanging Saliva, according to the Academy’s official list of winners. Before the envelope was opened, the tie outcome had been priced at roughly 1% on Kalshi.
Why the Tie Contract Mattered
Kalshi has built that possibility into the way the markets were structured. Under the platform’s rules, the “Tie” outcome would resolve to Yes if two nominees shared the award. This gave traders a direct way to back a low-probability outcome rather than choose between the named nominees. Variety reported that about 40 users bought the tie contract, with an average trade of $59 and total volume of $2,365. The winning contract paid out at 100-to-1.
The notable aspect wasn’t so much the size of the stake, but the asymmetry. The small amount of money could potentially return many times over should some rare, low-probability event occur. As opposed to broad market moves powered by heavy liquidity, this was a niche wager that occurred at the right time for a rare event. That’s where event markets can generate outsized payouts when settlement rules account for rare outcomes.
A Different Result on Polymarket
This episode also demonstrated a real distinction between the platforms. Polymarket had an Oscars market for the same category, but used a different settlement method. According to its rules, in the event of a tie, the market would resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed name came first alphabetically. In this case, The Singers was favored, while contracts on Two People Exchanging Saliva lost, despite the film officially sharing the Oscar. The Polymarket market for this category showed $540,743 in volume.
So, the whole story goes beyond Kalshi users being right on a 1% shot. The bigger takeaway is how prediction markets are becoming a product where contract wording can determine which user ends up being paid.
