Brazil’s Betting Tax Plan May Slip Beyond October Elections

Brazil is preparing a Selective Tax for fixed-odds betting, but the bill may not reach Congress until after the October elections. The rate has reportedly been set internally, though it remains undisclosed.

The Selective Tax would add another fiscal layer to Brazil’s regulated betting market from 2027. It forms part of the wider tax reform and is aimed at activities that authorities associate with health or social harm.

Reporting first published by O Globo says the government wants betting treated closer to sectors such as tobacco, with gambling addiction cited as a policy concern.

A New Levy Is Taking Shape

The rate remains the difficult part. Officials reportedly want a levy large enough to meet the policy goal without giving customers a stronger reason to move to unlicensed sites.

That balance is already sensitive. Licensed operators face a scheduled increase in the existing charge on gross gaming revenue. The rate is 13% in 2026 and is due to rise to 14% in 2027, then 15% in 2028. The Selective Tax would sit on top of that increase.

Elections Complicate the Calendar

The main obstacle is political timing. Brazil holds presidential elections in October, and the government is reportedly reluctant to open another tax debate before voters go to the polls.

No submission date has been announced. If the proposal is held until after the election, the congressional debate could move into November.

The delay also overlaps with the wider tax reform. Brasília must decide how expected revenue from the Selective Tax and the new federal CBS consumption tax will feed into the 2027 budget. CBS is set to replace PIS and Cofins.

The executive has until September 15 to submit the estimated CBS rate to the Federal Court of Accounts for validation. There is no penalty for missing the deadline, which gives the government room to push the process back.

Second Quarter of 2027 Is the Earliest Window

Even with approval before the end of 2026, collection would not take place immediately. The Selective Tax has a waiting period of 90 days after publication, and the second quarter of 2027 seems to be the earliest possible date for implementation under the currently proposed schedule.

Now, the main question for operators is the unresolved rate. Brazil has already approved a higher GGR tax, and the Selective Tax would add another levy while the industry is still absorbing the first increase. If the overall burden rises much further, the debate could soon shift from tax revenue to channelization.