Brazil Illegal Betting Share Could Double to 82% Under Casino Ban

Sep 23, 2026

ANJL says a ban on online casino games at licensed Brazilian betting platforms could push the illegal market’s share from 41% to as high as 82%. The figure is a projection from the industry association, not an observed market share after a ban.

The same study gives a more immediate number. ANJL’s technical team found 6,409 illegal betting domains that were still responding and accessible during monitoring from September 11 to 18, according to its September 18 technical note.

6,409 Illegal Domains Were Reachable

ANJL also tracked new unauthorized sites between June and August. It counted an average of 13.7 new clandestine betting domains per day without Ministry of Finance authorization.

Its technical review found several features of the offshore supply:

6,409 illegal domains were accessible during the September 11-18 monitoring period;
55.8% of offshore sites used a distribution network that concealed the original hosting;
98.3% of domains did not end in “.br”;
25.2 million Brazilians placed online bets in 2025, according to SPA data reported by Agência Brasil.

The association argues that removing online casino from licensed operators would not remove the product from Brazil. Its scenarios assume part of existing demand would move to unauthorized sites instead.

At the top of ANJL’s simulated range, a move from 41% to 82% is a 41-percentage-point increase. By 15M’s calculation, it is also a 100% relative increase. The high-migration scenario therefore doubles the estimated illegal share.

The 41% starting point also matches the midpoint of the 38%-44% illegal-market range reported for H1 2026 in the LCA Consultores/IBJR study covered by 15M earlier this month.

The figures describe different things. The earlier 38%-44% range estimated the existing market. ANJL’s new scenarios put the illegal share at 78% to 82% if online casino is prohibited, depending on the assumed migration rate.

ANJL Puts Potential Annual Tax Loss at Up to R$7.4B

ANJL estimates that the change could reduce annual tax collections by R$3.6 billion ($698 million) to R$7.4 billion ($1.43 billion). The dollar conversions use the Banco Central do Brasil exchange rate for September 18, the date of ANJL’s technical note.

The 82% figure is not a government forecast. ANJL represents the licensed gambling industry, and the estimate forms part of the sector’s response to the proposed restriction.

Brazil has not banned licensed online casino games at this stage. Reuters reported on September 17 that the federal government was preparing a provisional measure that could remove online casino while leaving sports betting and sports sponsorships in place. Finance Minister Dario Durigan said the same day that no final decision had been taken.

15M covered the proposed measure on September 18. The new ANJL study adds a black-market scenario and fresh domain monitoring rather than a new government decision.