Recent data from the Commission shows no consistent or sustained growth in consumer engagement with illegal gambling websites. Rather, the situation has become harder to read after July 2025. The introduction of new online safety restrictions coincided with a sharp rise in VPN use.
The regulator had already factored in a 30 percent uplift in its trend model to account for gambling traffic hidden by VPNs. Now, it says that a larger share of that traffic may be hidden. Thus, the size of the black market might be harder to interpret.
The Trendline Still Looks Uneven
The revised dataset now runs through February 2026, providing 21 months’ worth of data on the estimated consumer interaction with illegal gambling sites. It was measured based on the amount of time spent by users browsing these sites. Throughout that period, the regulator states the overall trendline does not show consistent or sustained growth in consumer engagement. The spike seen in autumn 2024 was not repeated in the same period of 2025.
To measure the VPN effect, the Commission used data from Ofcom and Similarweb. According to the update, Ofcom’s figures showed a jump in VPN usage in July 2025, followed by a downtrend that settled at 40% higher than previous values. In turn, the data provided by Similarweb indicated an analogous trend with a less strong uptick. The regulator says that is the reason why the confidence interval around its July data is wider before narrowing again in later months.
Why the Methodology Now Matters More
In March, the UK government said the Gambling Commission would receive an additional £26m over three years and that the Illegal Gambling Taskforce had also been launched. This indicates that the pressure for compliance is increasing while visibility into parts of the illegal market is becoming less certain.
According to the Commission, it is now looking for more input from licensed operators and international regulators. At the same time, it is adding evidence from the Gambling Survey for Great Britain and its Consumer Voice research.
The Commission’s report findings do not point toward a particular movement in the black market. What can be derived from these updates is that the use of VPNs is creating challenges for tracking that market.
