According to H2 Gambling Capital, global gambling gross gaming revenue is expected to hit $1.031 trillion in 2030. This estimate follows the IMF’s April 2026 World Economic Outlook update, which extended its forecast horizon to 2031.
Forecast Moves Slightly Higher after IMF Update
The change is small compared with H2’s previous model. The 2030 forecast was lifted from $1.023 trillion, an increase of under 1%. Still, the update confirms an important threshold for the sector.
By 2031, H2 expects global GGR to reach $1.088 trillion. In 2015, the same market stood at $438 billion. By 2024, it had reached $712 billion, helped by the post-pandemic rebound and the rise of digital gambling.
Online Share Becomes the Main Story
The most obvious shift is the channel mix. The online gambling market generated $89 billion in 2015, accounting for 20% of GGR globally. In 2024, the number grew to $293 billion or 41%.
H2 estimates the online GGR at $530 billion in 2030. That would account for 51% of the global market. Also, H2 expects online gambling to account for the majority of global GGR for the first time in 2029, when it reaches 50.3% of the $979 billion total.
While land-based gambling is predicted to see growth in absolute figures, its proportion should continue to decline. According to H2, land-based GGR will fall below half of global gambling revenue from 2029 onward.
Regulated Online Markets Gain Ground
The online split is also changing. According to H2, offshore online GGR accounted for 73% of the online market, or $65 billion, in 2015. Onshore online GGR reached $132 billion, or 45% of online revenue in 2024.
For the first time, H2 expects regulated onshore online markets to surpass offshore online. This expectation reflects a wider move toward online licensing. The US, Canada, Latin America, and Brazil’s market opening in 2025 have changed the base for licensed online growth.
Regional Growth Tilts West and South
Asia and the Middle East still represent the biggest region by value. According to H2 forecasts, it could increase from $270 billion in 2024 to $398 billion in 2030.
North American revenue is expected to increase from $193 billion to $284 billion during the same period. In turn, Europe is forecast to see its revenue move from $177 billion to $236 billion.
The fastest growth rates are expected in Latin America and Africa. For instance, Latin America and the Caribbean are forecast to rise from $29 billion to $51 billion, whereas Africa is projected to grow from $14 billion to $31 billion.
Final Notes
While the projected $1 trillion figure is a useful benchmark, the change in channels is probably a stronger indicator. Online gambling is transitioning from a growth segment to the center of the market.
Going forward, the next industry development phase will be less about market entry alone. How licensed operators scale, how payments are controlled, and how regulators deal with offshore supply are going to be in focus.
