Kalshi opened its platform data to researchers through a new vertical called Kalshi Research. The exchange marketplace conducted its first study showing it beat Wall Street’s inflation forecasts by 40% across all time periods.
Academics from Harvard, Stanford, Yale and the University of Chicago signed on to collaborate. Calls for abstracts are open now.
From one week out, Kalshi’s forecasts matched or beat the Wall Street consensus on 85% of inflation prints. The platform showed 50% lower mean absolute error for “shock forecasts”, those times when projections differ greatly from actual results.
Why This Research Matters for Market Credibility
Kalshi says policymakers, investors and executives can now trust its data as a “strong signal” of future volatility. That’s important for a sector that’s still proving itself.
The research arm gives outside academics access to internal platform data. This transparency helps build credibility beyond what operators can claim themselves.
And there’s more happening. On December 11, Kalshi formed the Coalition for Prediction Markets with Crypto.com. It’s about setting industry standards.
What the Coalition Plans to Do
The Coalition for Prediction Markets includes Kalshi, Crypto.com, Underdog Fantasy, Coinbase and Robinhood. Five major players working together.
The group will focus on federal frameworks that regulate prediction markets. They’ll do this through education and integrity initiatives across the US. Sara Slane from Kalshi and Matt David from Crypto.com joined as Executive Board Members.
The coalition wants to preserve a “safe and federally supervised prediction market space.” They’re prioritizing transparency and openness within the sector.
How This Changes the Industry Landscape
Kalshi isn’t waiting for regulation to happen. They’re creating frameworks themselves.
The research division gives academics the data they need. The coalition brings competitors together under shared standards. Both moves position Kalshi as an industry leader rather than just another marketplace.
But regulatory questions remain. Attorney General Anthony Brown issued a statement on Kalshi’s appeal against the US District Court for the District of Maryland. He thinks the court’s October preliminary injunction denial “should be affirmed.”
Kalshi will also host the first-ever Prediction Market Conference. The event will present the latest findings in prediction markets. Between the research arm, the coalition and the conference, Kalshi’s building an entire ecosystem around its platform.
That’s a bigger strategy than most exchanges pursue. Whether regulators and academics buy in remains to be seen.
