As the latest report from Citizens JMP Securities suggests, prediction market combo bets have produced worse outcomes for casual users than conventional sportsbook parlays. The study drew on anonymised user data from Juice Reel, a platform that aggregates betting activity across more than 200 gambling sites. It shows that combo ROI stood at minus 18%, compared with minus 12% for parlays.
Data Shows a Wider Loss Gap
According to Citizens, retail combo users lost around 45% more of their wallet than users placing parlays. Prediction market single-bet users saw a median return of minus 8% while pure sports betting users were down by minus 6%.
The figures matter because combo products constitute an increasingly significant share of prediction market activity. These trades allow users to bundle several event contracts into one position. As with a parlay, every leg must settle correctly for the user to win.
Pricing Structure Draws Attention
The report also pointed to pricing as a factor behind weaker outcomes for retail users. Combo trades are priced through a request-for-quote process, where market makers can respond before a trade is agreed. Citizens said this structure can give more sophisticated participants an advantage, although the report also noted that competition between market makers may sometimes improve prices for recreational users compared with high-vig sportsbook parlays.
In addition, users active across both prediction markets and traditional sportsbooks posted the weakest results, with minus 9% for parlays and minus 23% for combo wagers.
This implies that the problem does not lie solely within the product design. It may lie as well in how users approach multi-leg products. People drawn to high-payout multi-leg products may carry the same risk profile from sportsbooks into prediction markets.
Kalshi Volume Shows the Product Is Scaling
Combos on Kalshi have reached a share of 22% of total volume in April, growing from 13% in January, as noted by the Citizens study. The research also estimated that combos accounted for 26% of sports-only volume in April. In comparison, parlays represented 33% of total sportsbook handle over the same period.
This poses a dilemma for prediction market platforms. Combos can increase user interest and volumes. At the same time, they make prediction markets resemble the sportsbook format, where multi-leg products often produce higher customer losses.
Analysts also pointed out that an increased combination mix would speed up customer churn. In addition, it is estimated that FanDuel and DraftKings are going to invest around $600 million in marketing in 2026. That adds pressure on prediction market platforms to keep users active.
The Pattern Revealed
Combo bets may help prediction markets scale, but they also expose retail users to sharper losses. For operators and regulators, the next question is whether these products should be treated as financial trading tools, sportsbook-style bets, or something between the two.
