What and How Much It Will Yield
The largest contribution to the projected amount comes from changes to the CSLL tax and the JCP mechanism. The interest rate on the JCP, a tax-advantaged shareholder distribution instrument, will rise from 15% to 17.5%. According to government estimates, this will generate R$3.1 billion.
Changes to the CSLL will affect fintech companies and financial institutions. Traditional banks will pay a rate of 20%. For credit, financial, and investment companies, the rate will be 17.5% until the end of 2027, after which it will rise to 20%. The cumulative effect is estimated at R$1.1 billion.
Betting accounts for the smallest share in this package. The increase in the GGR tax is projected to generate R$260 million. For context: in the first two months of 2026, the industry has already generated R$2.5 billion in federal tax revenue, which is more than three times the amount from the same period in 2025.
The GGR tax on Betting is Increasing in Stages
The current GGR tax rate for fixed-odds operators is 12%. Under Law PLP 128/2025, signed in early 2026, it will rise gradually. In 2026, the rate will rise to 13%, in 2027 to 14%, and in 2028 it will be set at 15%. Half of the additional revenue will go to the social security system, and half to healthcare.
R$260 million of the projected R$4.4 billion represents precisely this annual increase from the transition from 12% to 13%, not the total revenue from betting.
Fiscal Context
Without the package of measures adopted, Brazil’s budget deficit for 2026 would have amounted to R$59.8 billion. Taking into account deductions totaling R$63.4 billion, including payments related to court rulings and temporary expenditures in education and healthcare, the government expects to achieve a surplus. The target primary surplus is R$34.3 billion, with the forecast at R$30.8 billion below that level.
The Ministry of Finance simultaneously revised its macroeconomic forecasts. GDP growth for 2026 has been lowered from 2.44% to 2.33%. Inflation has been revised upward from 3.60% to 3.74%.
What this Means for the Market
For the betting industry, the projection of R$260 million in additional revenue reflects a significant inclusion in the government’s fiscal program. The sector, which has only been operating under a regulated framework since January 2025, is already factored into budget estimates as a predictable source of revenue.
At the same time, the industry has consistently warned that further increases in the tax burden could backfire, driving activity to unlicensed platforms. This argument was raised during parliamentary debates on PLP 128/2025 and has not yet received a formal response from the regulator.
