The company’s founder and CEO, Jason Trost, left New York in 2008 to set up Smarkets in London, partly because prediction markets had no legal framework in the US at the time. Almost two decades later, he is bringing the same model back.
What Smarkets is bringing to the US
Over the years it has operated in the UK, the company has built up a solid user base. The platform has around one million accounts, annual revenue of approximately $32 million, and an annual trading volume of around $3 billion. Since the platform’s inception, around $50 billion has passed through it. The company owns a complete technology stack, including its own bet-matching engine, payment infrastructure and market data systems.
Smarkets is backed by investment firm Susquehanna, one of the world’s largest quantitative traders, which led a $30 million Series B funding round. This lends institutional weight to the US venture.
Smarkets’ model differs from that of traditional bookmakers. On the platform, users trade with each other rather than against the bookmaker. Prices are formed on the open market rather than being set via the operator’s margin. The company claims that this provides more favourable conditions for users.
Sport as the Main Driver
Smarkets does not position itself as a platform for all types of event contracts. The company regards sport as the main source of long-term growth. The logic is simple: political events and news do not occur frequently enough to keep users engaged on a daily basis. Sport provides an almost continuous stream of markets, from league matches to real-time contracts.
This approach mirrors the platform’s operations in the UK, where sports volumes were the main driver. Smarkets anticipates a similar pattern in the US once the regulatory process has been completed.
Two Regulatory Tracks
In the US, Smarkets is pursuing two parallel paths. The federal route via the CFTC covers the main prediction exchange. A separate state-level track involves obtaining betting licences for the SBK product in each jurisdiction.
The CFTC has up to 180 days to approve or reject a DCM application. Since the start of 2025, the commission has received 17 such applications: seven have been approved, ten are still under consideration. The outcome for Smarkets will depend, among other things, on how the CFTC ultimately formulates the rules for event contracts, which are currently under active review.
Trost stated that the company intends to work with regulators, rather than circumvent them. According to him, the US market is still seeking an approach to regulating prediction markets, and Smarkets’ long-standing experience in the UK’s regulated environment gives it a practical advantage.
A market that has grown rapidly
Monthly trading volume on US prediction markets has risen from approximately $1.2 billion to an estimated $20 billion in the space of a single year. This surge was made possible by a court ruling in late 2024, which required regulators to authorise event contracts for political events and placed them under the supervision of the CFTC.
For Smarkets, the key question is whether its proven model can compete with platforms that have already built up a large audience in the US. Kalshi and Polymarket moved quickly and attracted millions of users. Smarkets is entering the market later, but with regulatory experience, institutional backing and a clear product strategy. How US users perceive the exchange model compared to traditional bookmakers and prediction markets with fixed odds will determine the next phase of competition in this segment.
