New Zealand Moves Against Prediction Markets as Online Casino Bill Progresses

New Zealand Moves Against Prediction Markets as Online Casino Bill Progresses
New Zealand’s Department of Internal Affairs (DIA) has issued a warning to prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket, stating that the operations of the platforms for NZ customers would be illegal. The move comes at a time when the New Zealand Parliament is working on legislation to create an online casino industry.

Vicki Scott, the DIA’s Gambling Director, stated that the regulator had written to the two platforms. He asked the operators to delist New Zealand customers immediately, as it would be against the laws of the country to take bets from residents.

New Zealand’s existing laws have historically had a narrow understanding of who can offer online gambling products. In fact, since mid-2025, online racing and sports betting have effectively been locked to one local operator. Only TAB NZ can legally promote or take bets on sports and racing from people located in New Zealand.

The regulator is currently taking the position that “event contracts” and other prediction products are forms of gambling when they involve New Zealand customers. That is supposed to apply regardless of how these platforms position themselves.

Online Casino Reform Keeps Moving

Whereas prediction markets are being clamped down upon, the government’s online casino initiative is going in the opposite direction. Notably, it’s moving toward formalizing and capping the licensing process. The Parliament’s Online Casino Gambling Bill is in the Second Reading stage, with the intention of creating a safer online casino gambling marketplace.

Meanwhile, the DIA has already been encouraging would-be operators to register their interest as it develops the new system. On the provider guidance pages, the regulator sets out the proposed framework, which currently comprises:

  • Up to 15 licences, awarded through a competitive process (with auction as the first method);
  • A limit of three licences per operator;
  • A proposed multi-stage process (EOI, auction, and application) as well as new restrictions on unlicensed advertising and stricter penalties.

The exact details will depend on the final decisions made by Parliament. However, the overall direction seems clear: regulated casinos may get a fast lane, while unregulated “bet-like” products won’t.

Australia’s Polymarket Case Shows a Tougher Enforcement Option

New Zealand’s call also follows recent developments in Australia. The Australian Communications and Media Authority (ACMA) had issued a formal warning after its investigation of Polymarket’s operator. According to the regulator, the platform had provided prohibited and unlicensed interactive gambling services to customers physically present in Australia.

Media reports have also stated that the ACMA used its ISP blocking powers against Polymarket.

What This Signals for the Industry

For compliance teams everywhere, this is also a reminder that branding around prediction doesn’t necessarily change the category in the face of real-money stakes and local customers. New Zealand continues to narrow its online offering, keeping sports and race betting in a monopoly model but launching a limited casino market.

The operational issues to watch in 2026 include whether DIA strengthens access controls beyond letters, and what the final casino regulations do in terms of advertising, platform requirements, and suitability of applicants.

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