Macau’s casinos have recorded their weakest quarter since reopening following the pandemic

According to Citi analysts, the three months to 30 June were likely the toughest quarter for Macau’s casinos since the city reopened in January 2023.

Two factors weighed on the results. The first was the FIFA World Cup, which diverted some of the players’ attention. The second was the casinos’ extremely poor retention rates. Even against the backdrop of a general market recovery, this quarter stood out for the worse.

What caused the quarter’s slump

The main problem lies in the so-called ‘hold rate’. This is the proportion of stakes that the casino retains after payouts. When players are luckier than usual, the hold rate falls and the casino’s revenue drops, even if there are plenty of guests and bets. In the second quarter of 2026, this figure turned out to be very low.

The World Cup also played a part. Major sporting events draw some high rollers and regular guests away from the tables, as people spend their time and money on other things. Taken together, these two factors led to the poor result.

Figures from Citi

Analysts at Citi have provided specific estimates. According to their forecast, the sector’s EBITDA in the second quarter of 2026 will fall by approximately 7% compared with the same period last year, amounting to around $1.923 billion. For a market that has been growing steadily over the past two years following the lifting of Covid restrictions, this is a significant setback.

This is specifically a quarterly dip, rather than a reversal of the overall trend. Macau’s recovery is continuing overall, but this particular period stands out from the general picture.

What this means for the market

A weak quarter highlights just how much Macau’s results depend on factors that casinos cannot always control. The hold rate is largely a matter of players’ luck over a short period, whilst the calendar of major sporting events is entirely beyond operators’ control.

For investors and operators, this serves as a reminder that even a strong market produces uneven quarterly figures. A single poor period with a low hold rate and external distractions such as the World Cup can skew the statistics, even though underlying demand remains intact. Future quarters will reveal whether this was a one-off blip or the start of a more pronounced slowdown.