In a recent note, the research firm’s senior analyst Vitaly Umansky also discussed the Q1 2026 GGR growth of 15.6% year-over-year and a full-year growth rate of around 7%. According to the analyst, the first half of the year for Macau has a number of structural tailwinds. Nevertheless, the market’s upside is contingent upon the market’s ability to expand the recovery beyond its premium segment.
Why the First Half Looks Unusually Supportive
The rationale behind Seaport’s call rests on three pillars relevant to the near-term revenue trend in Macau:
- Easier year-over-year comps in H1 2026. The easier year-over-year comps in the first half of 2026 are a factor, as the year-over-year growth rates will look more attractive if demand trends remain steady.
- Liquidity driving 2026. According to Umansky, liquidity is driving 2026, and if the money channels remain fluid, Macau can continue to satisfy high-end demand.
- Visa policy as a demand driver. Accessible travel routes can drive incremental visitation, especially when spending power is stable.
In this context, February becomes more than a monthly report. If it beats estimates, that could lead to revisions, particularly if they are positioned to handle additional volume.
A Premium-Led Recovery Still Requires a Mass Comeback
Macau’s recovery has been driven by the premium segment, with base mass markets (mostly the segment that stays overnight) trailing behind. However, Seaport believes that if overnight base mass does improve, it could accelerate the rate at which the Macau market grows.
There are also hints that the recovery is expanding, at least over time. The note cites Citigroup’s comment that premium mass markets have recovered to the levels seen during the Golden Week in January. Base mass markets overall remain weak, as per the note. Mid-tier markets have been improving since the summer, which aligns with the recovery in the premium segment.
Capacity Advantage: Who Can Take Share If Traffic Improves
Seaport’s operator perspective is primarily a capacity play. As the market and visitation grow, the entities that have the most capacity to accommodate the incremental business will be best suited to take share. Seaport’s ratings in the note:
- Buy. Las Vegas Sands/Sands China, Wynn/Wynn Macau, Melco, Galaxy;
- Neutral. MGM/MGM China;
- Sell. SJM.
SJM is on the wrong side of the trade. Umansky sees it as losing the most share through late 2025 and then continuing to fall in 2026. These conclusions are based on satellite closures and competitive pressure around Grand Lisboa. In contrast, the bigger capacity operators like Sands China and Galaxy are noted as having the most ability to accommodate changes in the market.
Risks: Macro Pressure vs. Low Valuations
Seaport’s outlook is not risk-free, though. The key constraints remain the sustainability of GGR growth, the trajectory of China’s economy, and the geopolitical environment. Umansky adds that Macau stocks remain cheap enough to improve the risk-reward for investors willing to take China risk.
Takeaways for Operators
For the Macau operators, the Seaport February call is about whether the growth trend continues to be premium-driven or if it expands into base mass. If premium growth prevails, the reinvesting discipline and the ability to hold share gains without overpaying for demand will matter. But if overnight base mass sees improvement, operators with more capacity and better visitor funnels will need to translate that into more volume and share gains.
