Kalshi, the US-based prediction markets platform, has Brazil in its sights for future expansion. Co-founder Luana Lopes Lara confirmed the company’s interest in her home country during a recent interview with Valor.
The 29-year-old Brazilian entrepreneur became the world’s youngest self-made female billionaire without inheritance after Kalshi’s latest funding round. That raise valued the company at $11 billion.
But plans for Brazil remain early. Lara said the team is still figuring out how their regulated model would work there.
Why Brazil Matters to Kalshi
The Brazilian market holds both strategic and personal significance for Lara. “The Brazilian market is very important to me, as a Brazilian myself, I really want us to go there,” she told Valor.
There’s a business case too. Brazil currently has no equivalent structure that combines derivatives-style markets with event-based trading. That gap represents an opportunity.
Lara said she hopes to announce developments at the start of next year. Though nothing’s been finalised yet.
What Kalshi’s Model Offers
The company created an exchange where people buy and sell outcomes of future events directly. Traditional financial markets price these things indirectly, which frustrated Lara and her co-founders.
“Our idea was to create an exchange where people could buy and sell the outcome of what will happen, instead of relying on indirect structures,” she explained. This approach lets markets reflect expectations more efficiently when multiple variables interact.
Sports-related markets generate a significant chunk of Kalshi’s revenue. That’s notable because sports betting attracts regulatory scrutiny.
Lara argues these markets serve a real hedging function. Hotels, broadcasters and publicly traded sports clubs all face financial risks tied to game outcomes. Her platform gives them tools to manage that exposure.
How Regulatory Challenges Shape Growth
Getting regulated took serious time. Kalshi spent three years working with US regulators before launch. Then came legal fights to expand into politically sensitive areas like election contracts.
Regulation will be central to any Brazil entry. Lara acknowledged the team has only started analysing how Brazilian regulators might handle their model.
The company also faces ongoing legal issues in the US. A class action lawsuit in New York is hitting delays as courts work through jurisdictional questions about prediction markets.
These regulatory hurdles don’t seem to slow Kalshi’s ambitions. They’re part of operating in this space. And Lara clearly sees Brazil as worth the effort to figure out the right approach.
