The move by Hong Kong comes as a pause in the rollout of the legalization process that had seemed to be in place. Local reports had pointed to a possible September launch, and the initial intention was to shift gambling activities from the underground market. This was justified by huge figures: in 2023, the total turnover in illegal basketball gambling in Hong Kong was estimated at HK$32 billion to HK$34 billion.
As of now, the government does not seem to treat the issue as a straightforward licensing exercise.
Why the Government Stepped Back
Alice Mak, Secretary for Home and Youth Affairs, noted that passing the law in the previous year did not oblige the government to issue a licence on a fixed timetable. Her statement suggests that public interest takes precedence despite the existence of a legal framework.
It seems that the rise of prediction markets is the main issue. With such platforms, users can place bets on various outcomes in sports, political events, finance, and military events. The emergence of such markets has led to speculation as to whether they should be regarded as a new type of betting under a different name.
According to government comments cited by local media, prediction-market trading volume reached US$64 billion in 2025. Officials also noted that such growth justified a more comprehensive analysis of these markets and their potential risks.
A Gambling Reform That Became a Policy Question
The Hong Kong system for basketball betting was expected to be confined and practical. It assumed licensing one vertical where the demand would be funneled through regulated betting, thus undermining the underground supply. But since prediction markets expanded, the issue of the categorization and regulation of new types of betting is now up for discussion.
Local media also saw the suspension in light of the larger anti-gambling policy framework of Beijing. However, this wasn’t the government’s official explanation.
The proposed system would have involved the Hong Kong Jockey Club. So far, no launch date has been publicly announced yet.
Conclusion
Hong Kong has a legal basis in place for regulated basketball betting, but the regime has yet to be implemented. The current policy question is not whether Hong Kong has the capacity to legalize the product. At this time, it’s whether officials believe that emergence of prediction markets has altered the risk calculation sufficiently to postpone gambling expansion.
