This shift matters beyond Germany itself.
An agreement reached under pressure
The GlüStV 2021 requires the federal states to publish an evaluation report by 31 December 2026. The report must show if the law has achieved its stated objectives of keeping players within the licensed sector and ensuring their protection.
Luka Andrić, managing director of the German Sports Betting Association (DSWV), stated that the process has gone beyond a mere formality. According to him, the fundamental question now is whether the current system works in practice.
According to independent research, around half of all gross gaming revenue in Germany goes to unlicensed operators. This figure calls into question the very effectiveness of the current regime.
Deposit limits and slot betting limits
The monthly deposit limit of €1,000 and the maximum stake of €1 on online slots have long been the subject of criticism. Licensed operators regard them as the main obstacle to competing with offshore platforms.
There has already been some movement. In exceptional cases, the monthly limit can be raised to €30,000, provided certain conditions are met. Lawyer Dr Stark-Lütke Schwienhorst sees this as proof that targeted adjustments within the framework of the current agreement are possible.
According to Andrić, higher slot betting limits and adjusted gaming restrictions are areas where the first signs may appear even before the final report.
Turnover tax
The German tax of 5.3% is levied on betting stakes rather than on gaming revenue. This is a fundamental difference from the models adopted in most European jurisdictions. It is precisely this that is cited as the main structural barrier to a competitive licensed market.
With this tax base, the tax reduces operators’ margins regardless of profitability. It is extremely difficult to offer a product comparable to unlicensed alternatives under such conditions.
Changing this tax is very difficult. It requires the consent of all 16 federal states. One industry lawyer has compared this to amending the constitution. There is no real chance of a review in the next year or two.
What this means for other countries
Melanie Ellis of Northbridge Law says that Germany and the Netherlands have already demonstrated a pattern. Overly strict regulations lead to players and operators moving into the grey market rather than staying on licensed platforms.
Wulf Hambach of Hambach & Hambach cited Germany as an example for the UK and the Netherlands. In his view, good regulation should allow operators to compete, rather than simply imposing restrictions.
In Austria and the Netherlands, operators with Maltese licences are currently in litigation with thousands of players. This is partly a consequence of vague rules over many years. How Germany deals with this problem will show neighbouring regulators which direction to take.
