The year-on-year number is the headline, but January tells a different story. That month, federal tax collections from the sector reached BRL 1.5bn ($291.1m). February came in about 30% lower. For anyone tracking where the market is actually heading, the month-on-month drop is the more immediate signal.
What the Numbers Reflect
Currently, Brazilian operators pay 12% of their gross gaming revenue in accordance with current legislation. Under Supplementary Law No. 224, signed in January, this rate is set to rise to 13% in 2026. This increase is part of a phased plan under which the rate will reach 14% in 2027 and 15% starting in 2028.
According to data published in February, federal tax revenues from betting companies totaled 9.95 billion Brazilian reais ($2.0 billion) for the entire year of 2025. According to industry estimates, total revenue exceeds 10.7 billion Brazilian reais when accounting for payments not directly administered by the Federal Revenue Service. Over the year, regulated operators generated revenue of 37 billion Brazilian reais ($7.4 billion).
The gap between January and February shows the market is not growing in a straight line. Whether February’s level becomes the new baseline or whether January’s figure was an anomaly will become clearer over the next few months.
Regulator Gets a Permanent Head
The updated revenue figures were released amid a separate development at Brazil’s Secretariat for Prizes and Betting (SPA). Daniele Cardoso, who had been serving as acting head of the agency following the departure of Regis Dudena, was confirmed by Finance Minister Dario Durigan as the permanent head.
The SPA is part of the Ministry of Finance and is responsible for overseeing the regulated betting market. Leadership stability within the regulatory body is of great importance in a market that is still in the process of establishing its compliance infrastructure. The appointment of a permanent director removes one of the variables in the work of the supervisory body, which, since the regulations came into effect, has been handling a significant volume of work related to licensing and ensuring compliance with the law.
Broader Tax Picture
The Brazilian gambling sector is currently facing stricter tax policies than it did during its early stages.
The industry continues to monitor the progress of the CIDE-Bets bill, which proposes a 15% levy on player deposits. This bill was approved by the Senate but, after amendments were made, was sent back to the Chamber of Deputies, and a date for the final vote has not yet been set. In addition, the tax rate on gross gaming revenue has increased.
LCA Consultoria conducted a study commissioned by the Brazilian Institute for Responsible Gaming. Its findings showed that the total tax burden for regulated operators could reach 42% by 2033 as broader tax reforms are implemented in the country. At the same time, the institute noted that higher rates create a risk of activity shifting to unlicensed platforms, a challenge regulators in other markets have faced following the introduction of similar taxes on deposits.
Currently, the regulated market generates significant revenue for the federal budget. However, given the current trajectory of taxation, it is unclear whether this trend will continue in the coming years.
