The 27 domains linked to prediction market platforms blocked by Brazilian authorities recorded 2.18 million accesses from Brazil in the first quarter of 2026. These figures are based on the traffic data gathered by Aposta Legal. The block was announced on April 24, when the government moved against platforms it classified as irregular.
Traffic Points to a Narrow Market
The data points to several large global platforms dominating the market. Polymarket accounted for 1.46 million accesses from Brazil during the quarter. This was about two-thirds of the total mapped traffic. The second-ranked platform was Kalshi, which had 250,000 accesses or 11.4% of the total.
The contribution of other platforms was smaller. Robinhood had 118,000 accesses associated with event contracts, and PredictIt had 96,300. The IBKR ForecastTrader platform recorded 91,700 accesses.
The top five platforms altogether contributed to 92.2% of all traffic. The remaining 22 domains shared less than 8%. This shows that even before government action, Brazil’s prediction market audience was already concentrated.
Why the Legal Line Changed
According to the Ministry of Finance, prediction markets can be regulated using the same principles applied to betting when they involve future events and pre-defined payouts. The ministry said that these platforms trade contracts linked to outcomes like political decisions, sports events, economic indicators, and cultural awards. In its view, when users put money at risk on future outcomes for a predefined or calculable payout, the product becomes similar to fixed-odds betting.
The Ministry’s approach is further outlined in a technical note from the Secretariat of Prizes and Betting. According to this note, while prediction markets may be considered as financial instruments, their structure can replicate the essential elements of fixed-odds betting. It suggests restricting access to such platforms in Brazil when they provide contracts related to sports and other event themes not within the scope of authorized activities.
Betting contracts on elections pose additional concerns. The Ministry of Finance stated that betting on election outcomes is illegal under the rules approved by the electoral authority. According to Aposta Legal, at least five blocked platforms offered election-related contracts.
Preventive Blocking Enters the Playbook
Ten out of 27 restricted platforms had low or almost no Brazilian presence in the first quarter.
That suggests that action was taken by regulators early. They did not wait until each platform gained popularity. Instead, they blocked sites with similar product characteristics.
This practice matches Brazil’s efforts to combat illegal gambling. According to the Ministry of Finance, actions against illegal betting activity have resulted in more than 39,000 blocked websites and 203 removed applications that operated outside federal regulation.
Wrapping Up
Brazil appears to be regulating products based on their economic purpose rather than branding. An operator may position the product as a contract, exchange, or market. Such a product may still be treated as irregular if it functions like betting on future outcomes.
The next question is whether Brazil leaves room for a licensed version of these products. For now, the regulation seems to be heading towards a more restrictive stance.
