The history of the modern U.S. internet betting market has seen spending to acquire customers and access the market, followed by profits. A cash return implies that BetMGM is convinced that it can spend to grow its business, deal with regulatory hurdles, and still have money left over.
2026 Guidance Moves Higher
BetMGM recently shared its 2026 outlook, which suggests an even greater profit base. For 2026, the company announced net revenue of $3.1-$3.2 billion and adjusted EBITDA (or its “adjusted core profit”) of $300-$350 million.
The 2025 base they’re working off of is also clearer now, as BetMGM announced net revenue of $2.8 billion and EBITDA of $220 million in 2025. The company also announced the year-over-year growth in net revenue of 63% and 24% from its online sportsbook business and iGaming sector, respectively.
The $270 million was received in Q4. The company is now talking about future “cash to parents” in terms of parent fees and excess cash distributions as their profitability normalizes.
Taxes and New Market Costs Are Now in the Model
The guidance is also notable for what it implicitly accepts. That is, taxes are no longer a theoretical concern, but rather a working assumption. BetMGM’s own presentations highlight full-year tax impacts in New Jersey, Illinois, Maryland, and Louisiana. Investments in new markets such as Missouri and Alberta were also flagged in the company’s materials.
This is the reality in the United States. Data and research have long highlighted states exploring new tax structures in the sports betting space.
What It Means for Investors and Operators
The implications for investors of MGM Resorts International and Entain are dominated by the emerging trend of cash flow creation from BetMGM. This development has the potential to alter the valuation of the JV.
For competitors and B2B businesses, however, the message is perhaps more pronounced. In a world where DraftKings and FanDuel still contend for market share, the next chapter may favor iGaming scale and reinvestment discipline over splashy promotions.
